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14 November 2018
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Gheorghe Russu

Vice-director, The Center for Combating Economic Crimes and Corruption

Parties-Phantoms, Parties - State Institutions, Parties - State Enterprises

Ion PREAŞCĂ

20 parties have registered in the current election campaign. Many people say it is a too big number for such a small country as Moldova. At the same time, much more parties could take part in the election campaign.

Last week illustrated
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Activists launch Moldova’s first ‘Space Camp’ © Susan Coughtrie

Coalition 2010

The process of coalition formation has become the litmus test for all current problems the Republic of Moldova confronts with. Before making a step into the new year (and in a new coalition) it would be useful to make a review of mistakes committed during 2010.
Irina Severin, 26 January 2011, 9:42

Nothing personal, just business

As a year ago, Marian Lupu has situated himself in the centre of the process. Apparently he has been waiting the moment until both, his coalition partners who have ignored him during the year and the communist-opponents who have exceeded in offenses and humiliations, would depend on him and on his decisions. The hour of glory has arrived and Lupu wants to extend it as much as possible. 

But the situation of Marian Lupu is not as easy as it seems to be, and it will become more difficult from now on. Coalition formation process reached the stage when the initial parameters for the coalition formation have begun to change not in Lupu's favor. The problem is that a business approach - conducting parallel negotiations with two partners in order to establish the price-quality correlation of the merchandise, is less likely to be used in politics.

This approach hits in the most important quality of a politician -trust in him - and betrays a lack of principles and standpoints. Lupu will probably bet on the power and propaganda, rather than on the democratic processes within the society. This fact was confirmed by his unhealthy reaction to the criticism from the civil society. This is how all the dictators begin - they simply want to be loved and praised.

As regards the negotiations themselves, offering hopes to both partners and finally refusing one of them, Lupu intentionally worsens the situation. It is true that Lupu risks nothing by having a relationship with Communists, as their attitude regarding Lupu is well known. Once Lupu is caught in a coalition with Communists, he will remember what a "partnership" with Communists means - they will find a way to revenge for the endured humiliation.

Marian Lupu perceives this better than anyone else. A coalition with Communists is less likely to be created, also because Voronin has declared in categorical terms that the distribution of portfolios will commensurate with the accumulated votes, despite the discussions about "generous proposals" from the Communist Party. Mishin has confirmed this approach. In such a situation could Lupu rely on Plahotniuc's loyalty? In terms of business approach, mostly preferred by Lupu, it has simply become a bad investment, which should be dropped quickly.

The Communists and the poverty - synonyms

Lupu has nothing else to do but seek support from Moscow, who has already wooed him in this coalition. As a result, members of Left-wing coalition will find themselves focused on Moscow and will compete with each other for Kremlin's goodwill.

Russia will be happy to sustain this competition, as it usually does, enjoining its interests that does not fit with Moldova's interests. Russia can only dream about a free trade agreement with EU, whilst for Moldova this is a genuine perspective that opens a lot of opportunities for the country's economy. Russia, however, wants Moldova to remain a poor and isolated country that would continue to supply Russia with cheap and qualitative labor force. It is Communists who could ensure this; they have done it during eight years of governance - keeping Moldavian population at a level of physical survival and impeding the economical development of the country. By the way, Lupu and Lazar are directly connected to this process, since both of them have been ministers of economy during the Communists governance. That is why they carry a huge responsibility for the person they intend to empower.

It is less probable that Marian Lupu wants to be again at Communists` own will, leading the country in a direction opposite to its interests and against the historical logic. Moldovans are not mocked of in Europe, as it happens in Russia. In Europe they are treated as equal partners, they are appreciated for their merits and sincerely supported, not only of human kindness. Europe is interested in having wealthy neighbors, as the EU bases on the "win-win" principle, in the contrast with the Russia's imperial principle "win-lose".

Moscow has sent its "supervisor"

The endeavors to change the facade of the Communist Party, "the hammer and the sickle" into something more acceptable, as Marian Lupu desired, will not succeed - Russia will not permit this, because it believes that it owns the brand. Communists could have done this in 2005, but they have lost the chance. Currently, Communists totally depend on Russia and are forced to play according to its rules. The appearance on the Communists electoral list of Zurab Todua, an expert in political technologies, who in the last period has come more often to Moldova (while his activity pauses in Kirgizstan), and who has already been nicknamed "the supervisor from Moscow", denotes a new level of dependence on Russia.

Today, Todua is in the position of the new ideologist of Communists, promoting the idea that "EU integration aspirations are considered to be the exclusive consequence of Moldovans' inferiority complex". The evolution of Communists during the last five years is quite curious. If in 2005 Voronin expelled all Russian experts in political technologies, accusing them of intrusion in internal affairs of the country, today he adds them on the electoral list of his party. What is this if not the evidence of a gradual demoralization of Communists?

One legal aspect is curious in this state of affairs. In other countries there are mechanisms of protection against political salesmen. A person who wants to candidate for MP must have been leaved in that country for at least five years.

In what concerns Lupu, Moscow conceived the dissolution of the Democratic Party into the Communist Party. In order to achieve this, Lupu is allured with the false idea about his perspectives of becoming the leader of the Communist Party and with a trouble-free presidency.

A large coalition as a method of fighting

Filat is rather a difficult partner for Lupu. However, it is possible to find a common language with him. If in the new coalition Filat will not deviate from the right course for some deceitful ideas and alluring messages coming from outside, as happened last year at the CSI Summit, then we can expect even a better result. But Filat must learn how to work in a coalition of European type, and for this he must mitigate his vanity, also inspired from abroad. It is very likely that he will renounce to the idea of creating a clone of Russian party "United Russia" («Единая Россия») in Moldova and to the attempts to subordinate all the power levers in the country. This is very possible due to both, the ambitions of other two components of the coalition, and the change of certain geopolitical parameters.

Actually, we should not exclude the fact that Filat's stubbornness is part of the scenario, according to which the Communists will suddenly change the partner of negotiations. This idea is actively promoted within the informational space, although for the Liberal-Democrats this is equal to the political suicide. A recent example: advised by her councilors Tymoshenko tried to form a large coalition with the Party of Regions, who finally rejected themselves the coalition.   

Plays with Putin, plus the details mentioned above have killed Tymoshenko's reputation and her chances for the presidency. In fact, Russian experts in political technologies have not hidden that the coalition`s task was to demoralize the "oranges" and their electorate. The experiment was successful and we should not overlook its results. 

The paradoxes of the coalition

Despite the extravagance or, paradoxically, thanks to it, Ghimpu remains the coalition's symbol of durability and the guarantor of country's European vector, although lately his deeds i prove certain anomalies. The observers explain this fact by the effect produced on Ghimpu`s mind by the Romanian councilor Dan Dungaciu known for his closeness to Rosca, who currently occupies a clear pro-Russian position. Moscow would be happy to succeed in drawing Ghimpu into an adventure thus destroying his authority. Ghimpu must take this into account. .

Currently he continues to be the mediator between two potential components of the coalition, between two political-economical groups launched into the struggle for the levers of influence. Following the flow of the events, Ghimpu has nothing else to do but capitalize his moral superiority, as happened last year, and become the Speaker/ of the Parliament.         

If Lupu, however, succeeds to obtain the support of the left-wing candidates for the post of president of the country, then we could speak of Lupu as politician. If not, then the honorable function of interim president will fall again on Ghimpu's shoulders, offering him the second chance up to the next early parliamentary elections.

 

 



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