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The red card for the Parliament Speaker?

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• Kent Larson: USAID will always support process of Moldova democratization, INFOTAG, 1 August 2011, 13:42
• Parliament sets up new commission - for checking civil servants' property and incomes, INFOTAG, 29 July 2011, 9:00
• Scandal in Moldovan parliament over deputies' relatives, INFOTAG, 29 July 2011, 9:00

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Why Vladimir Voronin has not included Marian Lupu in the composition of the Supreme Security Council?   

A few days ago, the public opinion was surprised to find out that the Parliament speaker, Marian Lupu, had not been included by the president Vladimir Voronin in the composition of the Supreme Security Council. This obvious red card shown to the speaker by the president and the fact of sending him on the sidelines, when the game becomes more and more interesting, raised a number of assumptions and speculations.

As usual, the president has not offered any comments and has not justified his decision. Although, if he were asked by journalists (let us suppose at the annual press conference, which, as it seems, will not be organized this year), he would easily find a formal answer, such as: "The Council has the status of a consultative body under the president of the republic and it is my competence, as of the head of state, to decide on its composition". But, this would be only a formal answer, because the Republic of Moldova is a parliamentary republic and the speaker is de facto the first person in the state. It is clear to everybody that the removal of the Parliament speaker from the SSC composition has deeper underlying reasons, and the only unknown variable in all these is as follows: whether the step made by the president Vladimir Voronin is oriented personally against the current speaker Marian Lupu or in general against the Parliament speaker (as a position). Both versions have the right to exist.

In the first case, one can say that it is not a secret that Marian Lupu has never been favored personally by the president Vladimir Voronin. The speaker was imposed to the latter by his environment and by... circumstances. In the conjuncture created in 2003-2005, the government needed to change its image, to push forward such personalities as Marian Lupu. The threats (for the communist government) of that period have passed, but the relation between the speaker and the president of the country has not changed. At least, it has not changed for the better. Marian Lupu is the only communist official who has repeatedly taken the liberty openly to defy Vladimir Voronin, which is unforgivable for such an ambitious person as the current president of the country. According to unofficial sources, last time, the speaker rejected the president's proposal to become the governor of the National Bank of Moldova, while the position of Parliament speaker was to be offered to a reliable partner of Vladimir Voronin, who needed it very much to raise his rating and increase his chances to get into the Parliament.

From this viewpoint, the removal of Marian Lupu from the composition of the Supreme Security Council can be seen both as a small revenge for disobedience, and as a means of impairing his authority. The second aspect must not be ignored as it is known that lately Marian Lupu has had no rivals within the government (except for Vladimir Voronin, of course). Previously, his rivals were the Prime-minister Vasile Tarlev and the minister of foreign affairs and European integration Andrei Stratan. The first one dropped out of the game after his resignation/dismissal (and the level of the new Prime-minister does not allow her yet to be a serious rival to Marian Lupu, although according to surveys Zinaida Grecianii is quite a popular personality), while the second one has become less visible in the second half of this year (it is probably related to the fact that in the light of the upcoming Parliamentary elections the issue of European integration has paled into insignificance both for Chisinau and for Brussels).

Another version is that Marian Lupu does not fit well in the current composition of the Supreme Security Council. They have made a number of important decisions lately (for example, on the exploration of underground deposits, on the reimbursement of VAT to economic entities by the state or on alleged fraudulent schemes used by certain banks, etc.) that have resulted in spectacular resignations/dismissals. Marian Lupu is a famous economist and has been the minister of economy in the past. He knows the issues discussed within the Council and many of the persons concerned very well. It is very possible that he has formulated opinions not convenient to the Council, or, to be more exact, to the president. Probably, other issues of this kind are to be discussed, therefore the presence of Marian Lupu in the SSC is not that desirable.

Another opinion is that the step made by the president Vladimir Voronin is a long-term one and aims at the post-election period. The current government admits the idea of possible running into opposition and there are several reasons for that. Thus, after the elections we could have a rather interesting situation when the current opposition will have sufficient votes to form a government coalition, but they will be not enough to elect the president of the country. Under such circumstances, it is possible that in order to avoid pre-term elections they will prefer to elect a president "of everybody", i.e. the one who will not represent any party or, on the contrary, will represent all of them. Such a president will be very famous, but with a very limited authority to act and to make decisions. Obviously, with such a head of state the Supreme Security Council will not be what it is at the moment. The situation can be different if the Parliament speaker (who could represent the opposition at that time) will be a member of the SSC. Certainly, he could attach some weight to the Council and manipulate it, including in order to achieve certain political goals. We can suppose that, knowing what a dangerous weapon the SSC can become in the hands of a capable politician, Vladimir Voronin has decided to secure himself from unpleasant surprises.

However, there is a reverse of the coin in this case too. It is not excluded that the communists will find themselves in a situation, when they will have the possibility to form the government coalition independently or together with someone, but will not have sufficient votes to elect the future head of state. Thus, by opting for a compromise (election of a president "of everybody") in order to avoid pre-term elections, they could lose control over the SSC. In other words, there will be a situation when the president Vladimir Voronin will fall into his own pit dug for the others. All the more so that, according to insistent rumors, the next speaker will be Vladimir Voronin; and if so the fact that Moldova is a parliamentary republic will get a real emphasis.