Politics

Moldovans are upset, the Alliance is in decline ...

Few are willing to believe the surveys that reflect the decrease in popularity of their political favorites. However, the reality is different, even tougher and bitterer, especially for the actors who are currently in a critical situation, such as the Liberal Party and the Alliance "Our Moldova" (AAM).
Denis CENUSA, 17 May 2010, 13:37

Various negative opinions were expressed about the survey presented few days ago by IMAS. But this does not reduce the importance of socio-political indicators, which are much more credible than state institutions. The state of continuous political confrontation and ambiguity in the process of government creation has seriously affected the weak authority of the leadership. Meanwhile the economic circumstances are weakening the legitimacy of certain members of the Alliance for European Integration even more.

The percentage of citizens who are pessimistic about the direction chosen by the Republic of Moldova exceeds the percentage of optimists. Thus, 53% believe that the direction is wrong and 27% consider it to be good. The perception of the economic situation also appears to be very negative, almost 71% being dissatisfied with the current climate in the national economy. Therefore, the image of main state institutions is worsening - of the Parliament (6%), the Government (with 5%), Local Authorities (with 7%). The attitude towards the judicial system worsened the most, recording -14%. This breakdown occurs because of the impossibility to effectively and promptly investigate the events of April 2009, but also to judge the alleged offenders from the former government. Public dispute, attempts to deceive each other, compromised political partnerships had a bad impact on the opinion about political parties (who lost 10% of public trust).

Communists on positions

Hoping that the Alliance will recover and will become an incorruptible and clever „body", its supporters keep silent regarding the weakening of certain elements of the liberal democratic coalition. Instead excessive attention is given to minor image fluctuations felt by the Communist Party. According to the survey, voting intention for the Communist Party decreased by 1% in 2010, compared to 29% in October 2009. The communists' position is relatively stable, if we take into account the pressure exerted on them, including through the "anti-communist cleaning campaign ", conducted by the Alliance against the former government party, accused of committing a series of offences. Compared to PCRM, some members of the liberal democratic coalition have much weaker results. The main laggard of the Alliance is Our Moldova Alliance, which risks to remain out of the future Parliament, except if will become a part of an "electoral bloc", just like it did in 2005.


The Liberals lose to LDPM

In the unofficial competition between liberal democrats and liberals for domination over the right segment of the political spectrum, the party of M. Ghimpu seems to be the loser. Thus, the number of their potential constituents reduced by 5% from 10% they held last year. Meanwhile, LDPM registered a remarkable evolution from 10% to 17%, which places it on the second place among political preferences of the Moldovans. The result reached by the Liberal Democrats mainly ows to the distribution of more „liberal" voters from the Democratic Party (4%) and of the "moderate" from the Liberal Party (5%). But liberals have the chance to recover, if they managed to attract part of the anti-Communist electorate despite the confusion and animosities from inside and outside of the governing Alliance. The electoral contribution of Moldovans from abroad is also very important and will have an even greater role in the upcoming elections, as a result of facilities introduced in the Electoral Code. The liberals which have exhausted all possible national resources, rely on this particular segment.

If LP targets the citizens left to work in the EU stated, just like LDPM, then the democrats are targeting Russia, also known as a destination point fro Moldovan "gastarbeiters". The DPM mission won't be easy at all, because it overlaps with the intentions of certain active political groups which are not in the parliament or which are about to be formed, concentrated on the same electorate from abroad.

Disparities between DPM and LDPM

Now when early elections and the amendment of Article. 78 of the Constitution of Moldova are expected, the Alliance will not only witness the rivalry between liberal parties, but also the escalation of the struggle between LDPM and DPM. However, the liberal movements do not bother of the party of the Prime Minister Vlad Filat so much. We can't say the same about the Democrats' actions, which are insistently claiming the presidency of the Republic of Moldova. It is not a secret that Filat is campaigning for this position, delicately opposing the DPM claims. The fact that he accepted early elections without insisting too much on the amendment of Art. 78 comes to prove it.

LDPM's current situation does not give reasons for irrevocable optimism, because the main competitors designated by the public opinion in case of direct voring are Marian Lupu (21% of voting intentions) and Vladimir Voronin (17%). Although Filat is on the the third place (14%) in this respect, the Prime Minister comes right after M. Lupu when it comes to public trust. Being the head of the Government and massively supported by foreign partners, especially by the European Union, Filat by a positive trend in the public opinion. However, while the trust in Filat goes up 34% to 39%, the trust in Lupu goes down by 4% from 46%.

In conclusion, it is worth giving more attention to the negative trends in the society in relation to the Alliance, which loses ground because of its own incompetence, inconsistencies and incoherence, are negatively appreciated by the public "eye". Individually, the elements of the liberal democratic coalition are developing differently. Despite the population discontent regarding the economic policies implemented by the Government, Filat's popularity is increasing according to the surveys. Lupu's democrats also show satisfactory results. The worst performances were recorded by LP and OMA, the last one risking permanently leaving the political circuit. At the same time, we can see the resistance and immunity of communists to the actions taken by the current government, allowing them to fluctuate in the political ranking.

 

 

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