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Exchange rate will see relative stability in the medium term
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In the medium term, the exchange rate will see a relative stability, the National Bank's governor Dorin Dragutan said in a news conference on February 8, Info-Prim Neo reports.
"There will be a certain temporary depreciation pressure, but the exchange rate will not be higher than 13.5 lei per dollar. In the medium term, by the end of 2011 it will reach the level of 12.5 lei per dollar projected in the central bank's monetary policy," he said.
Dragutan stressed that the Gross Domestic Product will grow by over 7% in 2011. This year, the GDP growth will be 1.2% - 3.3%. The production volume obtained in 2008 will be equaled only in 2012, as the National Bank forecast.
According to the governor, inflation could exceed the projected rate of 5% owing to such factors as the rise in the prices of electric power and gas. It could even reach 6.3%-7%. But in the medium term, the inflation rate will return to the projected level.
Dragutan said the reforms that the Central Bank will implement are aimed at maintaining prices and inflation. However, these projections based on the economic developments at the start of the year should not be regarded as promises.
Economic analyst Iurie Gotisan said the central bank has sufficient levers to maintain inflation and that the economic growth will depend on the political stability, the reforms implemented by the government and the rate at which the economies of the region and the world economies will recover.
